Buffett, 92, takes a different tack than virtually all other major insurers by investing heavily in stocks and holding a lot of cash in the form of Treasury bills—rather than investing insurance premiums mostly in bonds. Buffett would rather hold cash and not take the interest-rate risk of bonds.
Berkshire's insurance asset allocation is roughly 75% stocks, 21% cash, and 4% bonds.
2022 was the worst year on record for bonds, according to Edward McQuarrie, an investment historian and professor emeritus at Santa Clara University. That's largely due to the Federal Reserve raising interest rates aggressively, which clobbered bond prices, especially those for long-term bonds.
Beware of I bonds' drawbacks
The biggest red flag for short-term investors: You can't redeem these bonds for a year after you purchase them, and you'll owe a penalty equal to three months' interest if you cash out any time over the first five years of owning the bond.
Buffett, who chose the Vanguard Index Fund as a proxy for the S&P 500, won by a landslide. The five fund of funds had an average return of only 36.3% net of fees over that ten-year period, while the S&P index fund had a return of 125.8%.
Stocks offer an opportunity for higher long-term returns compared with bonds but come with greater risk. Bonds are generally more stable than stocks but have provided lower long-term returns. By owning a mix of different investments, you're diversifying your portfolio.
Firstly, bonds as a general asset class have a lower risk measure than stocks. Secondly, bonds generally pay you a coupon — monthly or quarterly, depending on the bond — that provides you with income as part of your investment. With interest rates on the rise, bonds will pay higher coupons.
Bond prices also fall when interest rates go up, so you can lose money if you sell your bond before the maturity date. In a bond fund, you're not locked into a bond with a lower rate, nor are you trying to sell individual bonds on the open market, which can be trickier.
Fast-forward to today, and short-term Treasuries are yielding 4.35% to 4.75%. Longer-term bonds have yields of roughly 3.7% to 3.8%. Higher rates are good for 2023 bond returns for two reasons. One, even if rates stay where they are, you'll get a nice positive return from the interest your bonds generate.
Normally, you're limited to purchasing $10,000 per person on electronic Series I bonds per year. However, the government allows those with a federal tax refund to invest up to $5,000 of that refund into paper I bonds. So most investors think their annual investment tops out at $15,000.
Short-term bonds
And if rising inflation leads to higher interest rates, short-term bonds are more resilient whereas long-term bonds will suffer losses. For this reason, it's best to stick with short- to intermediate-term bonds and avoid anything long-term focused, suggests Lassus.
10-year Treasury Note
U.S. Treasury bonds are considered the safest in the world and are generally called “risk-free.” The 10-year rate is considered a benchmark and is used to determine other interest rates such as mortgage rates, auto loans, student loans, and credit cards.
At age 60–69, consider a moderate portfolio (60% stock, 35% bonds, 5% cash/cash investments); 70–79, moderately conservative (40% stock, 50% bonds, 10% cash/cash investments); 80 and above, conservative (20% stock, 50% bonds, 30% cash/cash investments).
The three types of bond funds considered safest are government bond funds, municipal bond funds, and short-term corporate bond funds.
A high-yield savings account will be best for money you need to access easily and quickly. It offers more liquidity than a savings bond — you can transfer or withdraw money from a savings account at any time. You'll also earn more interest than a traditional savings account.
If interest rates increase, previously issued bonds lose value because an investor can buy new bonds with the same maturity date and receive a higher yield (and income stream). Long-term bonds will experience greater losses compared with short-term bonds when interest rates increase.
Based on current valuations, U.S. bonds are highly likely to outperform U.S. stocks over the next decade while suffering far less volatility and providing the added benefit of upside potential in the event of further weakness in the economy.
And when stocks crash, bonds usually hold their value or sometimes even go up - right now, though, not happening.
There is virtually zero risk that you will lose principal by investing in long-term U.S. government bonds. The U.S. government has an excellent credit rating and repayment history, and is able to "print" money as necessary to service existing debt obligations.
The portfolio's five largest positions are Apple Inc. (AAPL), Bank of America Corp (BAC), American Express Company (AXP), Chevron, and The Coca-Cola Company (KO). Apple is Berkshire's largest holding, accounting for nearly 41% of its stocks portfolio. The top 5 holdings account for nearly 70% of the portfolio.
In Warren Buffett's current portfolio as of 2022-09-30, the top 5 holdings are Apple Inc (AAPL), Bank of America Corp (BAC), Chevron Corp (CVX), Coca-Cola Co (KO), American Express Co (AXP), not including call and put options.
The rule of 110 is a rule of thumb that says the percentage of your money invested in stocks should be equal to 110 minus your age. If you are 30 years old, the rule of 110 states you should have 80% (110–30) of your money invested in stocks and 20% invested in bonds.