Although the pace of China's economic rise has slowed in recent years, it appears on track to end the United States' lengthy run as the world's largest economy by around 2035, according to the latest projection by economists at Goldman Sachs.
China's gross domestic product will surpass that of the U.S. in about 2035, the Goldman group led by Kevin Daly and Tadas Gedminas wrote, while India's GDP will narrowly surpass the U.S.' in about 2075.
More recently, Xi Jinping said in November 2020 that it was “entirely possible” for China to double its GDP between 2020 and 2035. If he is right, then China could overtake America to become the world's biggest economy by the middle of the next decade.
China's GDP should grow 5.7% per year through 2025 and then 4.7% annually until 2030, British consultancy Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) forecasts. Its forecast says that China, now the world's second-largest economy, would overtake the No. 1-ranked U.S. economy by 2030.
Regarding international comparisons, China will achieve its goal whereby “per capita GDP will reach the level of developed countries” by the absolute or relative level of per capita GDP by 2050. China will transition from an era of common prosperity to an era of common development.
Australia is a highly developed country with a high-income economy. As of 2022, it was the world's fourteenth-largest economy with the ninth-highest per capita income. In 2021, it ranked as fifth-highest Human Development Index.
While challenges remain, most experts believe that China will be the new superpower by 2050. China GDP in 2050 is expected to be around $58.5 trillion.
As a result, six of the seven largest economies in the world are projected to be emerging economies in 2050 led by China (1st), India (2nd) and Indonesia (4th) The US could be down to third place in the global GDP rankings while the EU27's share of world GDP could fall below 10% by 2050.
"China will be unable to surpass the U.S. economically, even after 2036," JCER said, due to slower productivity gains coupled with labor shortages. The Communist Party of China has set two long-term targets for 2035 and the middle of this century in amendments to the constitution made in October.
The United States enjoys overwhelming advantages over China. The United States outweighs China in terms of gross domestic product (GDP), technology, and military spending.
The United States is the richest country in the world with the highest GDP, as of 2021. China is the second richest country in the world with a $17.734 trillion GDP.
This is because, in most areas, there is no technology competition between the two countries. There is only China's reliance on the U.S.—a far more technologically advanced nation with far more technologically advanced allies and trading partners.
By 2050, more countries are likely to be defined as superpowers, joining the United States and creating a multipolar world order. Extrapolating current economic, geopolitical, and demographic trends would suggest that China is likely to become a new superpower, although its economy is currently faltering.
The United Nations says India will soon overtake China as the world's most populous country.
As part of its medium variant projections, the UN forecasts that China will continue to experience net negative migration through at least 2100, with estimates hovering around 310,000 people leaving the country per year.
The counterintelligence and economic espionage efforts emanating from the government of China and the Chinese Communist Party are a grave threat to the economic well-being and democratic values of the United States. Confronting this threat is the FBI's top counterintelligence priority.
US-China military ties and arms sales were terminated in 1989 and as of 2022 have never been restored. Chinese public opinion became more hostile to the United States after 1989, as typified by the 1996 manifesto China Can Say No.
If India can sustain annual GDP growth of 9-10 percent over the next 15 years, by 2025 it will likely overtake Japan and be the world's third-largest economy after China and the United States.
Africa and the Arab World will shape our future, while Europe and Asia will recede in their influence. By the end of the century, the world will be multipolar, with India, Nigeria, China, and the US the dominant powers. This will truly be a new world and one we should be preparing for today.”
The world population is expected to reach 8.5 billion people by 2030. India will overtake China as the most populated country on Earth. Nigeria will overtake the US as the third most populous country in the world. The fastest-growing demographic will be the elderly: 65+ people will hit one billion by 2030.
2070 will be marked by increased acidification of oceans and slow but remorseless sea-level rise that will take hundreds if not thousands of years to reverse – a rise of more than half a metre this century will be the trajectory. “It's a very different world,” Thorne says.
Australia has plentiful supplies of natural resources, including the second largest accessible reserves of iron ore in the world, the fifth largest reserves of coal and significant gas resources.