Australia's climate has warmed since national records began in 1910. Australia's average temperature has increased on average by 1.44 ± 0.24 °C since national records began in 1910. Since 1950, every decade has been warmer than the decade before.
So why does Sydney feel so cold right now? Because cold air from the south has brought winter-like weather. ABC meteorologist Tom Saunders described it as a "conveyer belt of cold southerlies", feeding bursts of polar air predominantly across Victoria, New South Wales and Tasmania.
Australia's annual average temperatures are projected to increase 0.4–2.0 °C above 1990 levels by the year 2030, and 1–6 °C by 2070. Average precipitation in the southwest and southeast Australia is projected to decline during this time, while regions such as the northwest may experience increases in rainfall.
El Niño in 2023 becoming more likely, which would result in dry, warm weather across eastern Australia. The first El Niño phase of the Pacific Ocean in eight years is becoming more likely in 2023, increasing the odds of drier and warmer weather across eastern Australia.
Australia could be set for an increasingly hot and dry coming months with a major government department making a bold prediction.
The report stated there was “very high confidence” that temperatures would rise across Australia throughout the century, with the average annual temperature set to be up to 1.3C warmer in 2030 compared with the average experienced between 1986 and 2005.
By 2050, the Thredbo area in the NSW Snowy Mountains will have a longer and hotter winter in store, with temperature increases of 4.8°C in the next few decades. And Sydney's western suburbs, urban areas like Penrith are set to experience 86 additional days of temperatures higher than 30°C.
According to a new Climate Council report, by 2040, summertime temperatures on hot days in Sydney and Melbourne will be approaching 50 degrees, making summer sport as it is played at present untenable.
Oceanic and atmospheric indicators for the tropical Pacific Ocean are at neutral ENSO levels. However, there are signs El Niño may form during winter. Therefore, the ENSO Outlook is at El Niño WATCH. This means there is approximately a 50% chance of El Niño in 2023.
Instead of winter, the researchers believe Australians will experience spring, autumn, and a longer season they're calling "new summer." During this new season, temperatures will consistently peak above 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit) for sustained periods of time, based on predictions.
Civilisations could collapse by 2100. Despite only dealing with probabilities, scientists predict without a determined effort to reduce emissions, the globe will likely experience 4 degrees of warming by 2100. “That makes large parts of Australia and other continents uninhabitable,” Prof Flannery warns.
Australia is likely to warm in future. Higher emissions cause greater warming. Winter rainfall in southern Australia is likely to decline. Most of the country is likely to experience more extreme daily rainfall.
Tasmania is Australia's coldest state overall because it is closer to the polar zone compared to the other Australian states and territories, and experiences more frequent bursts of cold Antarctic air. The coldest nights occur when the conditions are clear and calm, especially if there is snow cover.
The weather in Canada can be quite cold. The weather in the Australian provinces and territories stays pretty warm and favourable.
New research from the Australia Institute Climate & Energy Program shows that the Australian Summer is getting longer and Winter is getting shorter, due to global warming.
Many of the changes are being driven by rising levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere caused mostly by the burning of fossil fuels. The report, published by the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO, provides a snapshot of changes on land and ocean, including temperature, rainfall, storms and droughts.
"La Nina has ended and ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring and early summer 2023," the United States weather authority said in a statement. For the past three years, La Nina has driven Australia's weather patterns, which has led to wetter than usual conditions.
Dr Andrew King, a climate scientist at the University of Melbourne, says as the climate warms, an El Niño “will really increase the chance of a record hot year globally.” But he says for Australia, no two El Niños are the same and they do not guarantee extreme heat or drought for Australia, but do increase the risk.
Reduced rainfall
The shift in rainfall away from the western Pacific, associated with El Niño, means that Australian rainfall is usually reduced through winter–spring, particularly across the eastern and northern parts of the continent.
Future Hot Spots
But climate models tell us certain regions are likely to exceed those temperatures in the next 30-to-50 years. The most vulnerable areas include South Asia, the Persian Gulf, and the Red Sea by around 2050; and Eastern China, parts of Southeast Asia, and Brazil by 2070.
A UK study rated Tasmania one of the best places to survive a collapse in society. Scientists say Tasmania's climate, agricultural resources and electricity supply make it an ideal refuge should "things go pear-shaped"
The southern coast, which includes Adelaide, Melbourne and Sydney, has the best climate by far, with mild winters (June to August) between 41°F and 50°F (5°C and 10°C) and warm summers (December to February) between 77°F and 86°F (25°C and 30°C).
Australia and New Zealand's sea levels will rise at rates higher than the global average. There'll be a 50% increase in bushfires – the Black Summer Bushfires were just the beginning. Floods follow fires, so those heavy rainfalls brought by La Niña will become the norm.
Australia's average temperature has increased on average by 1.44 ± 0.24 °C since national records began in 1910. Since 1950, every decade has been warmer than the decade before. Both day and night-time temperatures have increased. Australia's warmest year on record was 2019, with the temperature 1.52°C above average.
A major study says by 2025 there's a 40% chance of at least one year being 1.5C hotter than the pre-industrial level. That's the lower of two temperature limits set by the Paris Agreement on climate change. The conclusion comes in a report published by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).