Australia's climate has warmed since national records began in 1910. Australia's average temperature has increased on average by 1.44 ± 0.24 °C since national records began in 1910. Since 1950, every decade has been warmer than the decade before.
Climate change in Australia is caused by greenhouse gas emissions, and the country is generally becoming hotter, and more prone to extreme heat, bushfires, droughts, floods and longer fire seasons because of climate change.
Climate change is cranking up the heat
Australia has warmed by around 1.4 C (2.5 F) since 1910, well ahead of the global average of 1.1 C (1.98 F).
5) with no action to reduce emissions, then average summer temperatures could rise by 1.4C – 2.7C by about 2050, with increases in most capital cities of about 2C. Sydney would be the most impacted area with an average 2.2C rise.
Australia has warmed, on average, by 1.47 ± 0.24 °C since national records began in 1910, with most warming occurring since 1950. Every decade since 1950 has been warmer than preceding decades.
Australia could swing from three years of La Niña to hot and dry El Niño in 2023. Australia could swing from three years of above-average rainfall to one of the hottest, driest El Niño periods on record, as models show an increasing likelihood the climate driver may form in the Pacific in 2023.
Temperatures and heatwaves
The number of days above 35 degrees are likely to be near or slightly below average for most capital cities in southern and eastern Australia.
The study, published in the journal Sustainability, found Tasmania could become recognised "as Australia's 'local refuge (lifeboat)' as conditions on the continental mainland may become less amenable to supporting large human populations in the future".
The warming will likely cause a number of key trends:
Accelerated sea level rise and worsening coastal erosion. Increased weather intensity including Category 6 cyclones. More frequent and extreme bushfires. A greater chance of extreme flood events.
All continents will be affected
Even the majority of the world's warmest and wettest regions have a wet bulb of no more than 25 to 27°C. In 2050, scientists estimate that it will be very difficult to live in South Asia and the Persian Gulf, i.e. countries such as Iran, Kuwait and Oman.
The highest temperature ever recorded in Australia is 50.7 °C (123.3 °F), which was recorded on 2 January 1960 at Oodnadatta, South Australia and 13 January 2022 at Onslow, Western Australia.
Oodnadatta, South Australia
The record for the highest official temperature ever recorded in Australia belongs to the remote outback town of Oodnadatta in South Australia.
Over the last few decades Australia has warmed significantly making cooler than average conditions more unusual. The rainfall outlook is for widespread wetter-than-average conditions this winter.
Predicted changes
Australia is predicted to experience higher temperatures. As the average temperature increases, extreme heat days will become hotter and periods of extreme cold will not be as cold.
Southern and eastern Australia are projected to experience harsher fire weather (high confidence). Tropical cyclones may occur less often, but become more intense (medium confidence). Projected changes will be superimposed on significant natural climate variability.
The higher warming rate is attributed in part to Australia's location near the South Pole. Polar areas experience faster warming compared to areas near the equator, mainly because of a loss of sea ice.
Australia's economic recovery is leading the world. More Australians are in work than ever before and the unemployment rate is now forecast to reach 3¾ per cent in 2022, the lowest rate in close to 50 years.
Australian sea levels are rising
This was a result of ongoing changes to the 'solid' Earth following loss of the large surface loading from ice sheets of the last ice age.
Australia has some of the last great wilderness, with three million square kilometers (1.1 million square miles) largely unchanged by industrial civilization, a report for international conservation watchdogs the Pew Environment Group and Nature Conservancy said.
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Key points. Australia is experiencing the effects of global climate change. Our average land and sea temperatures have increased. Despite large natural variation we are also seeing changes to rainfall patterns, increased fire danger, and rising sea levels.
The hottest months in Australia are therefore December, January and February. In these months, you might like to head south to escape the heat.
In its latest climate driver update, the BoM said La Nina – the conditions which contribute to above-average rainfall on the east coast and in Australia's north – will finish up in the opening months of 2023, earlier than the usual autumn ending.
On top of that, global average temperatures are expected to rise as greenhouse gas emissions continue to climb. As a result, the Met Office predicts 2023 will be one of the hottest years on record.