Australia's property market is considered to be among the most expensive in the world, with Sydney and Melbourne regularly featuring among the list of least affordable housing markets, along with some US and Canadian cities. One measure of affordability is the household debt-to-income ratio.
How does the Australian housing market compare to other comparable countries? Australian house prices are considerably higher than in many other comparable countries, largely due to factors such as supply and demand imbalance, tax policies, and low-interest rates.
In summary, we continue to expect house prices to decline in 2023 with total peak-to-trough losses in the order of 15 per cent-25 per cent, as we outlined in October 2021.
Kilroy says that while there is no doubt the property market was in a downturn over the latter half of 2022, a crash is unlikely due to strong economic fundamentals. The first of these is demand, with high rents and the return of overseas migration resulting in more potential buyers.
Various industry professionals have argued that it is not a bubble and that house prices have the potential to keep rising in line with income growth.
Prices across the country are set to slide by up to 10 per cent by the end of 2023, with Sydney, Brisbane and Canberra to be worst affected by the downturn. The latest PropTrack report predicted property values in Sydney, Brisbane and Canberra could slump by as much as 11 per cent as successive rate hikes bite.
If the price rises are maintained for the rest of the year, home values will end up about 4% higher in 2023, defying earlier predictions of sharp falls of 10% or more for this year, CoreLogic says. “Economists are shredding their previous price forecasts,” said Sally Tindall, research director for RateCity.
Australia's housing market is facing some headwinds, but a crash is unlikely due to strong underlying economic fundamentals. Rents are high and the return of overseas migration is creating a larger pool of potential buyers, supporting demand.
The average annual growth rate for well-located capital city properties is about 7%, which means that Australia's median dwelling price should be around $1.1 million in 2030. But some properties will outperform others by 50-100% in terms of capital growth, so take these house price predictions with a big pinch of salt.
Property Prices Could Potentially Surge in 2024
Evans and senior economist Matthew Hassan in a market update. "Prices are now expected to increase by 5% in 2024, revised up from 2%." Westpac predicts that by 2024, house prices will rise by 5% in both Sydney and Melbourne, 6% in Brisbane, and 8% in Perth.
Westpac has revised its house price forecasts, with dwelling values expected to stabilise in 2023 (initially forecast a -7% decline). National dwelling values are predicted to rise 5% in 2024, up from 2%. Increased migration, surging construction costs, and low market supply are contributing to the stabilisation.
However, rising interest rates will increase borrowing costs. The median house price increased by 14% to $1,019,000 in June 2022. In the next 18 months, a 9% fall in the median house price is expected with median house price predicted to rise to $996,000 by June 2025.
It's often said seven to 10 years is needed for property values to double, but new PropTrack analysis shows it took the median house price 15.4 years through to May 2023. It required even longer for units, around 17.8 years.
South Australia: Cheapest places to buy a house in Australia
While Tasmania may be the Australian state that is cheapest to buy a house right now, there is another state that may be more affordable, when you consider employment opportunities and income levels compared to home prices and cost of living.
What is the most expensive house in the Australia? The most expensive house in Australia is the Scottish baronial mansion, Uig Lodge, which was sold for $130 million in 2022 in Sydney's Point Piper. It is one of the most luxurious houses in Australia.
Bellevue Hill, Sydney
In the centre of Sydney's east, some of Sydney's most awe-inspiring properties are nestled within Bellevue Hill's green hills. It takes out the title as the most expensive suburb in Australia, and for good reason.
The downturn in the global housing market is set to continue in 2023, with most Australian cities expected to fall by double digits in what is shaping up to be the deepest property correction in more than 30 years. Few people are willing to buy or sell in a falling market, and stock is hard to find.
The average lifespan of a new build house in Australia falls within a certain range based on industry standards and research. Generally speaking, you can expect a new build home to last for at least 50-60 years. Many homes will last even 100 years or more.
Newcastle, Wollongong and the south coast would also be home to an array of suburbs where the average dwelling price was over $2m, double what it is now, including Thirroul, Hamilton South, Caves Beach, Gerringong and Kiama. Wollongong will have $2m suburbs by 2028 if the current trajectory of prices continues.
Three major economic centres are set to become uninhabitable by the end of the century, with global temperatures on track to warm by 2.7C. Darwin, Broome and Port Hedland are predicted to be pushed outside the “human climate niche” — that is, the temperature and humidity conditions in which humans can survive.
The ANZ CoreLogic housing affordability report has found rental affordability – the portion of income required to service a new lease – is at its highest level nationally since June 2014, with 30.8% of an average income required to service a new lease.
Price growth in Sydney's housing market has been fuelled by population growth, an undersupply of housing and higher levels of investor activity. Geographical constraints and planning restrictions have also limited the expansion of the land stock suitable for housing.
The data provided exclusively to The Sunday Telegraph showed the median house price would be $1.92m in 2027 and the median unit price would be $1.02m. Sydney prices would also be nearly triple those in Perth, Adelaide and Darwin if the current growth trajectory continued.
Prices could fall further
If you buy in a recession, there is always the risk that prices could fall even further. That said, Australian property prices usually tend to rise in the long run, especially in capital cities. So if you're prepared to spend some time owning your property, you're likely to come out ahead.
Not enough housing to meet the demand
Lack of housing is an issue that's plagued Australia for the past 20 years. A 2021 report from Grattan states that there are around 400 dwellings for every 1,000 people. This is amongst the lowest supply rates when compared to developed nations.