Key Takeaways. A recession is a significant, widespread and extended decline in economic activity. Riskier assets like stocks and high-yield bonds tend to lose value in a recession, while gold and U.S. Treasuries appreciate.
Often, stocks fall before a recession starts and rise before it's over. The economic research bureau “dates recessions only after they've begun,” Marlena Lee, the global head of investment solutions at Dimensional Fund Advisors, said in an email. “Markets, on the other hand, call them well in advance.”
A recession or economic downturn can be an unsettling time for investors and their finances. Stock prices often fall just as the economy starts to slow and workers get anxious about potentially losing their jobs due to the slowdown. But recessions can actually be one of the best times to invest.
What would a recession mean for Australia? If Australia enters a recession, many people will have a tough time, whether through job loss, home loss, or even just a struggle to pay the bills. Whole markets will tank or lose significant value and many businesses will likely go bankrupt.
Historically, the S&P 500 has fallen about 30% during an average bear market — generally defined as a period when a stock or stock index falls at least 20% from its most-recent high, says Jeff Buchbinder, chief equity strategist at LPL Financial. And most bear markets overlap with recessions, he adds.
Stock Market Performance In 2023
U.S. stock market gains in the first half of 2023 have been rosier than some entire years in the past. This alone raises the risk for a spill in prices. The S&P 500's rise in 2023 reached almost 16% in mid-June.
ITR Economics is forecasting that a macroeconomic recession will begin in late 2023 and persist throughout 2024. Business leaders recently had to lead their companies through the recession during the COVID-19 pandemic, and some were even in leadership positions back in 2008, during the Great Recession.
Higher interest rates that often coincide with the early stages of a recession provide an advantage to savers, while lower interest rates moving out of a recession can benefit homebuyers. Investors may be able to find bargains on assets that have decreased in price during a recession.
Australia could face per-capita (if not actual) recession
Throughout 2023, the panel expects economic growth of just 1.2% in the US and historically weak growth of 4.9% in China, suggesting Australia's biggest customer for minerals will be unable to provide much help as Australia's own economic growth dwindles.
Recessions last 11 months on average. The last recession that Australia faced in the early 90s lasted from September 1990 to September 1991.
The period starts several months ahead of the Great Recession and ends five years later. As we can see in the chart below, putting money into the stock market before the recession would have been a wise idea. Yes, indexes slipped during the worst of times, but they went on to post enormous gains. ^SPX data by YCharts.
In general, a recession lasts anywhere from six to 18 months. For example, the Great Recession that started in December 2007 lasted 18 months. But the recession prompted by the pandemic in 2020 only lasted two months. When a recession is on the horizon, it's impossible to know how long it will last.
In over half of the 13 years with recessions since World War II, however, the S&P 500 has actually posted positive returns.
Will there be a recession in 2023? Most economists still expect a recession in the second half of the year. They say the Fed's high interest rates eventually will be felt more profoundly by consumers and businesses.
Experts put the odds of a recession by July 2024 at 59 percent, suggesting the U.S. economy has a near 3-in-5 chance of contracting. Those odds have fallen slightly from the prior survey period in March 2023, with economists penciling in an almost 2-in-3 chance (or 64 percent) of a downturn by the end of 2023.
Prices could fall further
If you buy in a recession, there is always the risk that prices could fall even further. That said, Australian property prices usually tend to rise in the long run, especially in capital cities. So if you're prepared to spend some time owning your property, you're likely to come out ahead.
Consumer staples, including toothpaste, soap, and shampoo, enjoy a steady demand for their products during recessions and other emergencies, such as pandemics. Discount stores often do incredibly well during recessions because their staple products are cheaper.
Industries affected most include retail, restaurants, travel/tourism, leisure/hospitality, service purveyors, real estate, & manufacturing/warehouse.
Lasting from December 2007 to June 2009, this economic downturn was the longest since World War II. The Great Recession began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009, which makes it the longest recession since World War II. Beyond its duration, the Great Recession was notably severe in several respects.
Vanguard economists wrote in their mid-year outlook that they see a high probability of recession, and the “odds have risen that it could be delayed from 2023 to 2024.” JPMorgan Chase economists said in a note last week that there could be a “synchronized global downturn sometime in 2024.”