A recession or economic downturn can be an unsettling time for investors and their finances. Stock prices often fall just as the economy starts to slow and workers get anxious about potentially losing their jobs due to the slowdown. But recessions can actually be one of the best times to invest.
If you're young and still a while away from retirement, generally the best thing to do with your super before or during a recession is to leave it alone. If you've got your super in a balanced or growth fund (which the majority of Australians do), your super will already be diversified across a range of assets.
One way to make it easier to not sell during the next recession is to put a portion of your portfolio in low-volatility investments, such as bonds. The difference between shares and bonds is that with shares, you are part owner of a company, while a bond is a loan.
Finance Experts All Say the Same Thing
GOBankingRates consulted quite a few finance experts and asked them this question and they all said basically the same thing: You need three to six months' worth of living expenses in an easily accessible savings account.
Historically speaking, investors who hold on to their investments through recessions see their portfolios completely recover, and individuals who don't invest in the market at all lose out.
In general, a recession lasts anywhere from six to 18 months. For example, the Great Recession that started in December 2007 lasted 18 months. But the recession prompted by the pandemic in 2020 only lasted two months. When a recession is on the horizon, it's impossible to know how long it will last.
Generally, money kept in a bank account is safe—even during a recession. However, depending on factors such as your balance amount and the type of account, your money might not be completely protected. For instance, Silicon Valley Bank likely had billions of dollars in uninsured deposits at the time of its collapse.
Defensive Industries
Historically, the industries considered to be the most defensive and better placed to fare reasonably during recessions are utilities, health care, and consumer staples.
Millionaires and billionaires are almost guaranteed to make a lot of money if they buy stocks/assets during a recession and sell them for a higher price at a later date. Plus, they can rinse and repeat the same strategy whenever there's a market crash.
The Australian economy entered a recession after GDP fell 0.3% in Q1 2020 and a whopping 7% in Q2 2020 - the steepest contraction in the nation's recorded history. Prior to this economic anomaly, the last time Australia endured a recession was 1990-1991.
Gold is a secure investment that many people view as a hedge against inflation and a good diversifier for long-term investing. But during recessions, gold investors may benefit from rising gold prices as well as the security that gold can offer.
Domestic Bonds, Treasury Bills, & Notes
Mutual funds and stocks are considered to be a big gamble during depressions. While Treasury bonds, bills, and notes are more secure investments.
Recessions can last for a few months to a few years. The classic symptoms of a recession include: Drops in household spending. Significant job loss.
ITR Economics is forecasting that a macroeconomic recession will begin in late 2023 and persist throughout 2024. Business leaders recently had to lead their companies through the recession during the COVID-19 pandemic, and some were even in leadership positions back in 2008, during the Great Recession.
Bottom line. Moving your portfolio from stocks to cash is an understandable instinct when savings rates are high and there are concerns about a possible recession. But it's important to remember that stock market investments are part of your long-term plan, and selling could have tax implications.
If you don't have a healthy emergency savings account, you may want to prioritize that before you invest more during a crisis or recession. Setting aside funds for a financial hardship, such as a job loss, or temporary illness or disability, should be a high priority regardless of economic conditions.
Your biggest risk in a recession is the loss of your job, if you're still employed or semi-employed. If you need to tap your savings for living expenses, a cash account is your best bet. Stocks tend to suffer in a recession, and you don't want to have to sell stocks in a falling market.
One of the most common types of percentage-based budgets is the 50/30/20 rule. The idea is to divide your income into three categories, spending 50% on needs, 30% on wants, and 20% on savings.
Cash. Cash is an important asset when it comes to a recession. After all, if you do end up in a situation where you need to pull from your assets, it helps to have a dedicated emergency fund to fall back on, especially if you experience a layoff.