Australia's housing prices have experienced the largest decline in a calendar year since the global financial crisis (GFC) in 2008, when home values fell 6.4 per cent nationally.
The national median house price began to slow down in the March 2008 quarter, when it rose only 0.8 per cent compared with a price increase of 3.7 per cent in the previous quarter. In the June quarter it fell 1.4 per cent, before falling another 2.1 per cent in the three months to September of that year.
Australian property values experienced a downturn in 2022 and prices continue to fall—but predictions of the overall peak-to-trough price decline tend to vary between 15-25%. Read more about whether the Australian property market is going to crash.
The average annual growth rate for well-located capital city properties is about 7%, which means that Australia's median dwelling price should be around $1.1 million in 2030. But some properties will outperform others by 50-100% in terms of capital growth, so take these house price predictions with a big pinch of salt.
Australia records largest drop in house and unit values within one year, CoreLogic data shows. Australia has recorded its largest decline in property values on record, with values dropping by 7.9 per cent in a year and the median value of dwellings in more than 200 suburbs dipping below $1 million.
Prices across the country are set to slide by up to 10 per cent by the end of 2023, with Sydney, Brisbane and Canberra to be worst affected by the downturn. The latest PropTrack report predicted property values in Sydney, Brisbane and Canberra could slump by as much as 11 per cent as successive rate hikes bite.
If the price rises are maintained for the rest of the year, home values will end up about 4% higher in 2023, defying earlier predictions of sharp falls of 10% or more for this year, CoreLogic says. “Economists are shredding their previous price forecasts,” said Sally Tindall, research director for RateCity.
The downturn in the global housing market is set to continue in 2023, with most Australian cities expected to fall by double digits in what is shaping up to be the deepest property correction in more than 30 years. Few people are willing to buy or sell in a falling market, and stock is hard to find.
It's often said seven to 10 years is needed for property values to double, but new PropTrack analysis shows it took the median house price 15.4 years through to May 2023. It required even longer for units, around 17.8 years.
Property Prices Could Potentially Surge in 2024
Evans and senior economist Matthew Hassan in a market update. "Prices are now expected to increase by 5% in 2024, revised up from 2%." Westpac predicts that by 2024, house prices will rise by 5% in both Sydney and Melbourne, 6% in Brisbane, and 8% in Perth.
Australia's housing market is facing some headwinds, but a crash is unlikely due to strong underlying economic fundamentals.
There are three familiar names at the top of this bubble indicator: New Zealand (156.8), Canada (155.3), and Sweden (145.7).
The 1890s collapse
The 1890s witnessed Australia's worst ever house price decline. Not only did Melbourne's prices fall more than 50% in real terms, but Sydney's also fell 36%. House prices then went nowhere for 60 years. In other words, an adult at that time often didn't see a time when property was a good investment.
CoreLogic data shows house prices dropped by 9 per cent across the combined capital cities in the early 1980s recession, with Sydney plummeting by 25 per cent. During the early 1990s recession, national home prices fell by 6 per cent and Sydney was down by 10 per cent.
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According to Domain figures, the value of Australia's housing market fell by -5% across capital cities in 2022. Sydney dropped by -10.9% and Melbourne was down -5.9%. While Canberra and Brisbane house values fell by -6% and -1.1% respectively last year. Most of the damage was done by the end of spring selling season.
The data provided exclusively to The Sunday Telegraph showed the median house price would be $1.92m in 2027 and the median unit price would be $1.02m. Sydney prices would also be nearly triple those in Perth, Adelaide and Darwin if the current growth trajectory continued.
However, rising interest rates will increase borrowing costs. The median house price increased by 14% to $1,019,000 in June 2022. In the next 18 months, a 9% fall in the median house price is expected with median house price predicted to rise to $996,000 by June 2025.
With borrowing costs continuing to rise and the subsequent reduction in borrowing capacities, property price falls are likely to continue and accelerate in 2023, Kusher said. “We're expecting prices to decline by up to 10% nationally in 2023, with greater falls expected in the larger capital cities,” he said.
Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) vice president and deputy chief economist Joel Kan. Kan expects mortgage rates to average 5.6% by the end of 2023.
Supply and demand imbalance
Housing supply is under ongoing strain due to an increasing population and a limited land supply, particularly in large cities like Melbourne and Sydney. This increased demand, combined with an inadequate supply response, drives up the average residential property prices.
“Right now, Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth would all be considered buyers markets,” says Nerida Conisbee, Chief Economist at realestate.com.au.
The combined capital cities could see house prices rise 2 per cent to 4 per cent by the end of the 2024 financial year and units could climb by 1 per cent to 3 per cent, the Domain Forecast Report predicts.
House prices in the national capital are set to grow between 2 per cent and 4 per cent, according to the Domain forecast. Despite this, the median price will still be lower than the $1.17 million peak of June 2022 after the largest peak-to-trough fall of all the capital cities.
Despite interest rates continuing to rise, house prices are expected spike further in 2023 and 2024, according to the National Australia Bank.