Japan's population has been shrinking since 2010, when the population peaked at 128.5 million. The United Nations currently projects that Japan's population will fall below 100 million around 2050, but the faster-than-expected decline in fertility may mean that Japan reaches that threshold ahead of schedule.
After hovering around zero growth in the late 2000s, Japan's population has been shrinking since 2010, with the decline accelerating in recent years.
Japan's rapid population shrinkage is primarily caused by persistently low fertility. Japan's fertility rate has been declining since the mid-1970s, reaching a total fertility rate (TFR) of around 1.3 children per woman in the early 2000s.
Japan's total fertility rate — the average number of children a woman will bear in her lifetime — was 1.30 in 2021, down 0.03 percentage point from the year before for the sixth consecutive yearly decline.
China has had the largest population in the world since at least 1950, when the UN started keeping records. But it is now projected to experience an absolute decline in its population beginning as early as 2023.
These trends resulted in the decline of Japan's population beginning in 2011. In 2014, Japan's population was estimated to be 127 million; this figure is expected to shrink to 107 million (16%) by 2040 and to 97 million (24%) by 2050, should current demographic trends continue.
Addressing Japan's Demographic Problem
Demographics is a chronic social and economic problem for Japan. Since the 1970s, birth rates in Japan have plunged. 7 This means fewer young people are entering the labour force leading to a decline in the country's productive potential.
The Japanese economy is recovering from the pandemic as related uncertainty and supply constraints subside and consumption gradually rebounds. Growth will accelerate to 2.4 percent this year, the fastest in 12 years, and maintain nearly the same pace next year, according to our latest economic projections in April.
Supply chain issues, rising labor costs, and political issues have highlighted problems with Japan's reliance on China as a base for its manufacturing investments. With a low birthrate and aging population, Japan's social security system is under strain and is suffering from labor shortages.
Many younger Japanese have balked at marrying or having families, discouraged by bleak job prospects, onerous commutes and corporate cultures incompatible with having both parents work. The number of births has been falling since 1973, when it peaked at about 2.1 million. It's projected to fall to 740,000 in 2040.
The number of Japanese citizens living in the Tokyo area fell in 2021, which was the first drop since statistics began being collated in 1975.
But Japan also has a problem: it's running out of people. Its population is growing older, and not enough babies are being born. If the trend continues, it could weaken the country's role on the world stage, and this could have serious implications for the U.S., and the future of Asia.
Japan's population structure was shifting and becoming increasingly elderly. Aging meant slower growth of the labor force. Declining fertility combined with aging eventually reduced the domestic saving that supported economic expansion during the rapid economic growth period.
The biggest problems it faces – sinking economy, aging society, sinking birthrate, radiation, unpopular and seemingly powerless government – present an overwhelming challenge and possibly an existential threat.
Economic uncertainty, migration restrictions and couples choosing to have smaller families are having a knock-on effect in the form of a global population decline. Indeed, the birthrate in Japan is shrinking at a faster pace than previously predicted, according to estimates from The Asahi Shimbun.
On the other hand, Japan, with its rapidly shrinking and aging population, is expected to see its population decrease to 119.2 million by 2050, crack 100 million by 2053, and decline to 59.72 million by 2100—approximately half of what it was at its peak.
Given that Japan's average temperature is rising faster than the global average, this process is expected to continue escalating — that is, unless we slash global greenhouse gas emissions. The same principle applies to heatwaves. Unless we begin drastic emission reductions, Japan will just keep getting hotter.
For over 60 years the United States-Japan Alliance has served as the cornerstone of peace, stability, and freedom in the Indo-Pacific region. The U.S. commitment to Japan's defense under the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty of 1960 is unwavering.
Economic growth arises from changes in the quantity and quality of the labor force and capital stock. But Japan's demographic change and the increase in part-time workers lower both the quality and quantity of the nation's labor force, and the conservative investment stance does the same for the capital stock.
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2022: Major Japanese and International Events
Opening ceremony of Winter Paralympics in Beijing (held until March 13). Age of adulthood in Japan lowered from 20 to 18. Tokyo Stock Exchange reorganizes into three sections: prime, standard, and growth. Tsushima Museum opens in Tsushima, Nagasaki Prefecture.
Russia's population is in a historic decline as emigration, war and a plunging birth rate form a 'perfect storm'
The demographic features of the population of Japan include population density, ethnicity, education level, health of the populace, economic status, religious affiliations and other aspects regarding the population.
The population shrank for the first time in 2021, stoking worry that a declining population could severely damage the economy — the world's 10th largest — because of labor shortages and greater welfare spending as the number of older people increases and the number of taxpayers shrinks.
Employment Ice Age (Japanese: 就職氷河期, romanized: Shūshoku Hyōgaki) is a term in Japan (the term lost generation is also used) that refers to people who became accustomed to unstable and temporary employment beginning in the 1990s, until at least 2010.