The jobs that are the “first to go” when a recession hits are the ones that depend on consumer spending and people having copious disposable income, says Kory Kantenga, a senior economist at LinkedIn. Retail, restaurants, hotels and real estate are some of the businesses often hurt during a recession.
Higher numbers are more at risk. It may not be too surprising that information services—the industry that includes tech companies and media companies—tops the list, given the high-profile waves of layoffs that have already occurred in the sector.
Industries affected most include retail, restaurants, travel/tourism, leisure/hospitality, service purveyors, real estate, & manufacturing/warehouse.
What would a recession mean for Australia? If Australia enters a recession, many people will have a tough time, whether through job loss, home loss, or even just a struggle to pay the bills. Whole markets will tank or lose significant value and many businesses will likely go bankrupt.
Both the employees and firms get hurt by the recession. Employees lose their jobs and are forced to a lower standard of living while the firms undergo abnormal profits.
Fewer jobs and higher unemployment abound
One unfortunate truth of recessions is that millions of people often lose their jobs. As spending slows and the economy shrinks, business profits go down, too. To keep their profit margins afloat, they often slow hiring and start firing to trim the budget.
Higher interest rates that often coincide with the early stages of a recession provide an advantage to savers, while lower interest rates moving out of a recession can benefit homebuyers. Investors may be able to find bargains on assets that have decreased in price during a recession.
Last week, federal treasurer Jim Chalmers reiterated that the government and Australia's central bank do not forecast a recession for Australia in 2023 or the next few years. However, the economy is only expected to grow at minimal levels through June 2025 (see table below).
You can keep money in a bank account during a recession and it will be safe through FDIC insurance. Up to $250,000 is secure in individual bank accounts and $500,000 is safe in joint bank accounts.
Australia's economy was buoyed by large resource exports to China, whose economy rebounded quickly after the initial GFC shock (mainly due to expansionary fiscal policy).
Companies that make basic necessities like consumer staples and food will always have demand, even during an economic downturn - as people need to prepare meals, wash, clean, and so on. Discount stores often do relatively better during recessions because their staple products are cheaper.
So if you want to insulate yourself during a recession partly with stocks, consider investing in the healthcare, utilities and consumer goods sectors. People are still going to spend money on medical care, household items, electricity and food, regardless of the state of the economy.
No job is recession-proof. Despite your best efforts, you might fall victim to job cuts and find yourself in an unfavorable situation. Re-joining the labor market during an economic slowdown is difficult, but it's possible to find your footing after losing your job.
In general, a recession lasts anywhere from six to 18 months. For example, the Great Recession that started in December 2007 lasted 18 months. But the recession prompted by the pandemic in 2020 only lasted two months. When a recession is on the horizon, it's impossible to know how long it will last.
Build up your emergency fund, pay off your high interest debt, do what you can to live within your means, diversify your investments, invest for the long term, be honest with yourself about your risk tolerance, and keep an eye on your credit score.
In short, if you have less than $250,000 in your account at an FDIC-insured US bank, then you almost certainly have nothing to worry about. Each deposit account owner will be insured up to $250,000 - so, for example, if you have a joint account with your spouse, your money will be insured up to $500,000.
Yes, cash can be a good investment in the short term, since many recessions often don't last too long. Cash gives you a lot of options.
If you're young and still a while away from retirement, generally the best thing to do with your super before or during a recession is to leave it alone. If you've got your super in a balanced or growth fund (which the majority of Australians do), your super will already be diversified across a range of assets.
Recessions last 11 months on average. The last recession that Australia faced in the early 90s lasted from September 1990 to September 1991.
Australia has been in a lengthy recession before, but it was a long time ago. The first recession, since the development of the United Nations' System of National Accounts, was recorded 1974-75, the second in 1982-83 and the most recent recession occurred in 1991-1992.
Prices could fall further
If you buy in a recession, there is always the risk that prices could fall even further. That said, Australian property prices usually tend to rise in the long run, especially in capital cities. So if you're prepared to spend some time owning your property, you're likely to come out ahead.
A recession is when the economy experiences negative GDP growth and a slowdown in other areas. Interest rates typically fall once the economy is in a recession, as the Fed attempts to spur growth. Refinancing debt and making more significant purchases are ways to take advantage of lower interest rates.