New research suggests that, if the planet keeps warming at current rates, much of the top third of Australia could soon be too hot for people to live in.
The mobile-friendly MyClimate 2050 tool shows almost all areas across Australia will experience longer and hotter summers, with temperatures increasing by an average of 2.32°C.
Three major economic centres are set to become uninhabitable by the end of the century, with global temperatures on track to warm by 2.7C. Darwin, Broome and Port Hedland are predicted to be pushed outside the “human climate niche” — that is, the temperature and humidity conditions in which humans can survive.
Civilisations could collapse by 2100. Despite only dealing with probabilities, scientists predict without a determined effort to reduce emissions, the globe will likely experience 4 degrees of warming by 2100. “That makes large parts of Australia and other continents uninhabitable,” Prof Flannery warns.
El Niño in 2023 becoming more likely, which would result in dry, warm weather across eastern Australia. The first El Niño phase of the Pacific Ocean in eight years is becoming more likely in 2023, increasing the odds of drier and warmer weather across eastern Australia.
According to a new Climate Council report, by 2040, summertime temperatures on hot days in Sydney and Melbourne will be approaching 50 degrees, making summer sport as it is played at present untenable.
The report stated there was “very high confidence” that temperatures would rise across Australia throughout the century, with the average annual temperature set to be up to 1.3C warmer in 2030 compared with the average experienced between 1986 and 2005.
Australia will need to triple the National Electricity Market's power capacity by 2030 to be on track for net zero by 2050 – requiring a rapid rollout of wind and solar power, transmission, storage, electric vehicles, and heat pumps as we replace our coal fleet, new research shows.
Australia in 2025 will be: strong, prosperous, healthy and secure and positioned to benefit all Australians in a rapidly changing world. We are told that Australia will need a diverse economy built on sustainable productivity growth, knowledge-based industries and high value goods and services.
A UK study rated Tasmania one of the best places to survive a collapse in society. Scientists say Tasmania's climate, agricultural resources and electricity supply make it an ideal refuge should "things go pear-shaped"
Key points. Australia is experiencing the effects of global climate change. Our average land and sea temperatures have increased. Despite large natural variation we are also seeing changes to rainfall patterns, increased fire danger, and rising sea levels.
Australia is experiencing higher temperatures, more extreme droughts, fire seasons, floods and more extreme weather due to climate change. Rising sea levels add to the intensity of high-sea-level events and threaten housing and infrastructure. The number of days that break heat records has doubled in the past 50 years.
Australia's national climate projections at Climate change in Australia indicate that over coming decades Australia will experience: Further increase in temperatures, with more extremely hot days and fewer extremely cool days. Ongoing sea level rise.
Future Hot Spots
But climate models tell us certain regions are likely to exceed those temperatures in the next 30-to-50 years. The most vulnerable areas include South Asia, the Persian Gulf, and the Red Sea by around 2050; and Eastern China, parts of Southeast Asia, and Brazil by 2070.
Global warming has led to higher summer temperatures across Sydney over the past 30 years. However, our data analysis shows very hot summer days are becoming much more common in Western Sydney than in coastal Sydney. These hotter summers are also getting longer.
Temperatures of 50°C or higher have been recorded in at least two locations in the northwest of Western Australia this Thursday, January 13, 2022, with a high of 50.5°C at Roebourne Airport. This was the first time this century that any Australian location has reached the 50-degree mark.
The cost of living in Australia is rising – quickly – and it's expected to keep rising throughout 2023. We had 10 consecutive cash rate hikes from a low of 0.1% up to 3.60% in March 2023. In April, the RBA decided to hold on another hike, however, with hikes in May and June, the cash rate is now at 4.10%.
An ageing population, escalating pressures in the health system and climate change pose long-term challenges for Australia's economic growth, living standards and government finances. Failure to act now to tackle intergenerational challenges will result in severe economic, fiscal and environmental consequences.
Australia's economic recovery is leading the world. More Australians are in work than ever before and the unemployment rate is now forecast to reach 3¾ per cent in 2022, the lowest rate in close to 50 years.
Since the IEA's last review in 2018, Australia has passed the Climate Change Act in 2022, which doubles the target for emissions reductions by 2030 and sets the goal of reaching net zero emissions by 2050.
By 2050, the Thredbo area in the NSW Snowy Mountains will have a longer and hotter winter in store, with temperature increases of 4.8°C in the next few decades. And Sydney's western suburbs, urban areas like Penrith are set to experience 86 additional days of temperatures higher than 30°C.
To keep global warming to no more than 1.5°C – as called for in the Paris Agreement – emissions need to be reduced by 45% by 2030 and reach net zero by 2050.
The chance of at least one year exceeding the current warmest year, 2016, in the next five years is 90% Over 2021-2025, almost all regions, except parts of the southern oceans and the North Atlantic are likely to be warmer than the recent past (defined as the 1981-2010 average)
Australia and New Zealand's sea levels will rise at rates higher than the global average. There'll be a 50% increase in bushfires – the Black Summer Bushfires were just the beginning. Floods follow fires, so those heavy rainfalls brought by La Niña will become the norm.
Winter rainfall in southern Australia is likely to decline. Most of the country is likely to experience more extreme daily rainfall. Sea levels are projected to increase at a faster rate than during the last century. Climate projections are being incorporated into the planning processes of governments and business.