Instead of winter, the researchers believe Australians will experience spring, autumn, and a longer season they're calling "new summer." During this new season, temperatures will consistently peak above 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit) for sustained periods of time, based on predictions.
The mobile-friendly MyClimate 2050 tool shows almost all areas across Australia will experience longer and hotter summers, with temperatures increasing by an average of 2.32°C.
The warming will likely cause a number of key trends:
Accelerated sea level rise and worsening coastal erosion. Increased weather intensity including Category 6 cyclones. More frequent and extreme bushfires.
Climate shifts like heat waves could restrict the ability of people to work outdoor, and, in extreme cases, put their lives at risk. Under a 2050 climate scenario developed by NASA, continuing growth of the greenhouse emission at today's rate could lead to additional global warming of about 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2050.
Three major economic centres are set to become uninhabitable by the end of the century, with global temperatures on track to warm by 2.7C. Darwin, Broome and Port Hedland are predicted to be pushed outside the “human climate niche” — that is, the temperature and humidity conditions in which humans can survive.
Even if the Paris agreement to limit the global temperature rise to below 2C is met, summer heatwaves in major Australian cities are likely to reach highs of 50C by 2040, a study published on Wednesday warns.
The report stated there was “very high confidence” that temperatures would rise across Australia throughout the century, with the average annual temperature set to be up to 1.3C warmer in 2030 compared with the average experienced between 1986 and 2005.
It shows most communities will lose winter as a recognisable season under a relatively high emissions pathway. That's true for all capital cities including Canberra, which is also forecast to endure summers that are 3.3C hotter by 2050 with an extra 52 days above 30C each year. It's the same deal in Alpine regions.
Australia will be one of the countries hardest and fastest hit. Climate change threatens living standards through its impact on the environment and on the economy. Australia's ability to meet these future challenges depends on actions taken today.
Population, society and the economy
Australia's population will increase by 50-100% by 2050. The proportion of the population living in the north and west is projected to increase at the expense of smaller southern states. Median age will increase from the 36.8 years of 2007 to between 41.9 and 45.2 years.
Is living in Australia worth it? Absolutely. Australia is a fantastic place to live, even for foreigners. There aren't only advantages to living in Australia, but they outweigh the disadvantages.
Higher emissions cause greater warming. Winter rainfall in southern Australia is likely to decline. Most of the country is likely to experience more extreme daily rainfall. Sea levels are projected to increase at a faster rate than during the last century.
The study, published in the journal Sustainability, found Tasmania could become recognised "as Australia's 'local refuge (lifeboat)' as conditions on the continental mainland may become less amenable to supporting large human populations in the future".
With the world heating up it makes sense to head south for cooler climates — which is why many are looking to the island state of Tasmania for sustainable buying. Many more are heading north in vast droves to places like Queensland, willing to cop the environmental impacts for a shot at a better lifestyle.
Maximum temperatures are expected to be higher than average over most of Australia this winter, particularly during the second half of the season if El Niño and a positive IOD become entrenched.
Australia's national climate projections at Climate change in Australia indicate that over coming decades Australia will experience: Further increase in temperatures, with more extremely hot days and fewer extremely cool days. Ongoing sea level rise. Further warming and acidification of the oceans around Australia.
What does the future look like? There will still be winter, but it will be shorter and warmer. Extreme winter weather events will still intrude with heavy snow and cold temperatures. Snowpack will continue to go down over time.
So its safe to say that China will be economically the most powerful country in the world in 2050. China is also expanding its political and economic influence in other regions of the world, while the US is receding.
They argue that, at the end of this century, India will have the world's largest economy, followed by China and Nigeria. Asia and Africa will dominate regional markets. The leading players of the late 20th century - North America, Europe, and Japan – will have quite minor roles by the end of the 21st century.
In the univariate model, China will be the largest economy in the world in 2100, producing some 27% of global output. India will be the second largest economy accounting for 16.2% of global output and the US will be third with 12.3% of global output. So, it's the century of China then.
Australia is experiencing higher temperatures, more extreme droughts, fire seasons, floods and more extreme weather due to climate change. Rising sea levels add to the intensity of high-sea-level events and threaten housing and infrastructure. The number of days that break heat records has doubled in the past 50 years.
Australia has warmed, on average, by 1.47 ± 0.24 °C since national records began in 1910, with most warming occurring since 1950. Every decade since 1950 has been warmer than preceding decades.
Australia's temperatures are rising more rapidly than the global average and despite years like 2022 when a La Niña weather pattern generates a period of relative cool, according to an IEA assessment that warns of fallout on energy systems.