If the price rises are maintained for the rest of the year, home values will end up about 4% higher in 2023, defying earlier predictions of sharp falls of 10% or more for this year, CoreLogic says. “Economists are shredding their previous price forecasts,” said Sally Tindall, research director for RateCity.
Nationwide prices are expected to rise by approximately 2 per cent by the end of 2023. However, as the RBA potentially cuts interest rates before the end of 2023, demand pressures will contribute to a favourable environment for property prices.
It's becoming more evident the housing market has moved through an inflection point after falling -9.1% between May 2022 and February 2023. Not only are we seeing housing values stabilising or rising across most areas of the country, a number of other indicators are confirming the positive shift.
Westpac has revised its house price forecasts, with dwelling values expected to stabilise in 2023 (initially forecast a -7% decline). National dwelling values are predicted to rise 5% in 2024, up from 2%.
House prices are expected to soften further in 2023 but falls may not be as severe as some expect if the RBA stops increasing rates before the cash rate reaches 4%.
By 2024, the bank is expecting house prices to gain 5 per cent in both Sydney and Melbourne, that prices should rise 6 per cent in Brisbane, by 8 per cent in Perth, and that there should be a 5 per cent gain nationwide.
Sydney's mid-point house price stood at $1,221,367 at the end of 2022 and Westpac is expecting prices in 2023 to grow by one per cent, which would take levels up to $1,233,581, based on CoreLogic data. A five per cent increase in 2024 would take prices up to $1,295,260.
The average annual growth rate for well-located capital city properties is about 7%, which means that Australia's median dwelling price should be around $1.1 million in 2030. But some properties will outperform others by 50-100% in terms of capital growth, so take these house price predictions with a big pinch of salt.
“We're forecasting a 13% fall for houses and 8% for units, and we're forecasting Sydney to have the greatest fall in house prices of around 18%, while we have Perth houses at the other end of the scale with a more modest 4% drop.”
Therefore, the median price is expected to be $1,405,000 in the June 2025 quarter, with this figure representing an overall decline of some 8% from the June 2022 level.
au's analysis showed that, even if prices rose at a similar rate to inflation over the next five years, the median house price would still be near $1.5m in 2027.
Sydney property market forecast for 2023. After booming through 2020 and 2021, Sydney housing values have fallen 12.3% from their peak in January 2022.
A near-term house price surge remains unlikely. With interest rates restrictive and with some rise in unemployment through 2023, the positive impact of demand and supply issues will be muted. This suggests that house prices will go broadly sideways to slightly up for the remainder of the year.
It's a good time for home buyers, especially if they're in rented property with rents rising, and rents more expensive now than mortgages, and for investors who are after cash flow because of those high rents and low vacancy rates.”
Significant Interest and Fees
Buying a home is more expensive than renting. Even in cases where renting and mortgage repayments are the same, you have to pay for things like maintenance, body corporate fees, and council rates. Further, ever-fluctuating interest rates and unexpected costs can burden your finances.
Homeowners and would-be borrowers may be nervously wondering how high their home loan rates will go. The big four banks have all cast their predictions for the next few years of cash rate movements. For the average owner-occupier paying a variable rate, your home loan rate could reach 7.36% in 2023.
It'll probably come as no surprise, but the best time of year to buy property in Australia is just before or just after winter. As people hibernate during the colder months, fewer properties are listed for sale. There is also a significantly reduced number of buyers.
Prices could fall further
If you buy in a recession, there is always the risk that prices could fall even further. That said, Australian property prices usually tend to rise in the long run, especially in capital cities. So if you're prepared to spend some time owning your property, you're likely to come out ahead.
The OECD's stark warning of a “rout” in house prices that ripples across the entire economy has raised the spectre of the crash of 1987.
Prices across the country are set to slide by up to 10 per cent by the end of 2023, with Sydney, Brisbane and Canberra to be worst affected by the downturn. The latest PropTrack report predicted property values in Sydney, Brisbane and Canberra could slump by as much as 11 per cent as successive rate hikes bite.
In Australia, the average life of a brick home is 88 years and a timber home is 58 years (Snow and Prasad 2011). Many homes last much longer than this. Decisions that are made about homes today will continue to have consequences for many decades.
By 2041 we will have 13 million homes, up from 10 million in 2021.
Sydney house prices could gain as much as 5 per cent this year and Melbourne prices could lift by 2 per cent, as population pressure outweighs the effect of higher interest rates, according to the Commonwealth Bank of Australia's revised forecasts.
“As a result, the average house price in Sydney will also surge from $1.2 million in 2023 to $7.3 million by 2050.
Sydney house prices - May 2023
Despite the sharp downturn, the median house price in Sydney has rallied in 2023 to grow by a huge +2.1 per cent in May to just under $1.3 million, bringing quarterly gains right back up to +5 per cent.