If the price rises are maintained for the rest of the year, home values will end up about 4% higher in 2023, defying earlier predictions of sharp falls of 10% or more for this year, CoreLogic says. “Economists are shredding their previous price forecasts,” said Sally Tindall, research director for RateCity.
Nationwide prices are expected to rise by approximately 2 per cent by the end of 2023. However, as the RBA potentially cuts interest rates before the end of 2023, demand pressures will contribute to a favourable environment for property prices.
It's becoming more evident the housing market has moved through an inflection point after falling -9.1% between May 2022 and February 2023. Not only are we seeing housing values stabilising or rising across most areas of the country, a number of other indicators are confirming the positive shift.
The average annual growth rate for well-located capital city properties is about 7%, which means that Australia's median dwelling price should be around $1.1 million in 2030. But some properties will outperform others by 50-100% in terms of capital growth, so take these house price predictions with a big pinch of salt.
By 2024, the bank is expecting house prices to gain 5 per cent in both Sydney and Melbourne, that prices should rise 6 per cent in Brisbane, by 8 per cent in Perth, and that there should be a 5 per cent gain nationwide.
Westpac has revised its house price forecasts, with dwelling values expected to stabilise in 2023 (initially forecast a -7% decline). National dwelling values are predicted to rise 5% in 2024, up from 2%.
"Property price falls are likely to continue and accelerate in 2023," report author Cameron Kusher said, blaming the cooling market on the rising cost of borrowing and its associated drain on household budgets.
“We're forecasting a 13% fall for houses and 8% for units, and we're forecasting Sydney to have the greatest fall in house prices of around 18%, while we have Perth houses at the other end of the scale with a more modest 4% drop.”
By 2041 we will have 13 million homes, up from 10 million in 2021.
au's analysis showed that, even if prices rose at a similar rate to inflation over the next five years, the median house price would still be near $1.5m in 2027.
If the price rises are maintained for the rest of the year, home values will end up about 4% higher in 2023, defying earlier predictions of sharp falls of 10% or more for this year, CoreLogic says. “Economists are shredding their previous price forecasts,” said Sally Tindall, research director for RateCity.
Prices could fall further
If you buy in a recession, there is always the risk that prices could fall even further. That said, Australian property prices usually tend to rise in the long run, especially in capital cities. So if you're prepared to spend some time owning your property, you're likely to come out ahead.
Mr Young noted that the index also shows that average wages will jump by 425% over the next 28 years to 2050 which will drive up property prices by 486%. “As a result, the average house price in Sydney will also surge from $1.2 million in 2023 to $7.3 million by 2050.
Since the start of 2022, the Fed has hiked rates 10 times to combat rising inflation. As of May 2023, the federal funds rate ranges from 5.00% to 5.25%. If this prediction is correct, it won't be surprising to see some of the best high-yield savings accounts offering rates exceeding 4%.
High house prices in Australia are primarily driven by supply and demand imbalances, tax policies, low-interest rates, and rising household debt.
According to Realtor.com's research, listing your home the week of April 16 through April 22, 2023, is the best timing for a successful sale. Realtor.com even predicts that listing your home between April 16 and April 22 could get you $48,000 more for your home than you'd get if you listed it at the start of the year.
Australia in 2025 will be: strong, prosperous, healthy and secure and positioned to benefit all Australians in a rapidly changing world. We are told that Australia will need a diverse economy built on sustainable productivity growth, knowledge-based industries and high value goods and services.
Overall, that means prices are still much higher than they were pre-pandemic. That has made it even harder for people to get on the housing ladder, with new research finding 90% of aspiring first-home buyers are unable to purchase a property.
Australia's 80 per cent recession risk
Research from the Reserve Bank estimates that Australia's risk of recession over this year and next could be as high as 80 per cent. But policymakers try to be more precise than that, so they use a specific definition of "recession" to say for sure if one has begun.
It'll probably come as no surprise, but the best time of year to buy property in Australia is just before or just after winter. As people hibernate during the colder months, fewer properties are listed for sale. There is also a significantly reduced number of buyers.
The OECD's stark warning of a “rout” in house prices that ripples across the entire economy has raised the spectre of the crash of 1987.
That is according to the latest CoreLogic data, which shows Sydney recorded the largest decline in values for houses and units, at 13.4 per cent.
Zillow predicts that home values will increase by 3.5% in 2023, 3.4% in 2024, 3.3% in 2025, and 3.2% in 2026.
He said he expects prices will drop 35 percent over a three-year period, from their highest point in 2022, through to 2025.
Sydney house prices may be expensive now but they could pale in comparison to what future generations will pay. Analysis of housing trends revealed Sydney house prices will average nearly $1.8m by the end of the decade, up from $1.06m currently, if they continue rising at the same pace as the last 30 years.