A recession or economic downturn can be an unsettling time for investors and their finances. Stock prices often fall just as the economy starts to slow and workers get anxious about potentially losing their jobs due to the slowdown. But recessions can actually be one of the best times to invest.
If you're young and still a while away from retirement, generally the best thing to do with your super before or during a recession is to leave it alone. If you've got your super in a balanced or growth fund (which the majority of Australians do), your super will already be diversified across a range of assets.
Finance Experts All Say the Same Thing
GOBankingRates consulted quite a few finance experts and asked them this question and they all said basically the same thing: You need three to six months' worth of living expenses in an easily accessible savings account.
Gold is the go-to choice of many investors coping with market volatility. Gold's value typically increases when the overall market struggles. Between 2008 and 2011, for example, gold's price rose more than 100% as the economy struggled through the Great Recession and moved into recovery.
Historically speaking, investors who hold on to their investments through recessions see their portfolios completely recover, and individuals who don't invest in the market at all lose out.
It's especially important to have savings during a recession, however, because economic uncertainty can create other financial concerns, such as layoffs. A surprise job loss can be stressful, but if you're cushioned with an emergency fund, it can be easier to pay for your expenses until you get a new position.
Australia could face per-capita (if not actual) recession
Throughout 2023, the panel expects economic growth of just 1.2% in the US and historically weak growth of 4.9% in China, suggesting Australia's biggest customer for minerals will be unable to provide much help as Australia's own economic growth dwindles.
Australia is moving closer towards a recession and its chances of experiencing one in the next year is sitting at around 50 per cent, according to economists.
Consumer staples, utilities, healthcare, streaming, discount store, and even fast food stocks all have a record of positive performance during recessions. Commodities like gold are yet another category of recession-proof stocks because when all else fails, gold stays up.
In general, a recession lasts anywhere from six to 18 months. For example, the Great Recession that started in December 2007 lasted 18 months. But the recession prompted by the pandemic in 2020 only lasted two months. When a recession is on the horizon, it's impossible to know how long it will last.
Gold is a secure investment that many people view as a hedge against inflation and a good diversifier for long-term investing. But during recessions, gold investors may benefit from rising gold prices as well as the security that gold can offer.
Domestic Bonds, Treasury Bills, & Notes
Mutual funds and stocks are considered to be a big gamble during depressions. While Treasury bonds, bills, and notes are more secure investments.
Bottom line. Moving your portfolio from stocks to cash is an understandable instinct when savings rates are high and there are concerns about a possible recession. But it's important to remember that stock market investments are part of your long-term plan, and selling could have tax implications.
So if you want to insulate yourself during a recession partly with stocks, consider investing in the healthcare, utilities and consumer goods sectors. People are still going to spend money on medical care, household items, electricity and food, regardless of the state of the economy.
Generally, the industries known to fare better during recessions are those that supply the population with essentials we cannot live without that. They include utilities, health care, consumer staples, and, in some pundits' opinions, maybe even technology.
Michael Burry rose to fame after he predicted the 2008 U.S. housing crash and managed to net $100 million in personal profits, and another $700 million for his investors with a few lucrative, out-of-consensus bets.
In 2008, at the peak point of the global financial crisis, the legendary investor invested $5 billion in Goldman Sachs to strengthen the firm's capitalisation and liquidy in turbulent times. The then decision of Buffett has generated a return of roughly $3.1 billion for him.
Your biggest risk in a recession is the loss of your job, if you're still employed or semi-employed. If you need to tap your savings for living expenses, a cash account is your best bet. Stocks tend to suffer in a recession, and you don't want to have to sell stocks in a falling market.
Cash. Cash is an important asset when it comes to a recession. After all, if you do end up in a situation where you need to pull from your assets, it helps to have a dedicated emergency fund to fall back on, especially if you experience a layoff.
Pro: Cash means liquidity
One of the biggest risks to individuals in a recession is the threat of job loss or unaffordable bills. With a solid cash account behind you, it's easier to navigate uncertainty more confidently knowing that you're financially prepared.