Higher interest rates that often coincide with the early stages of a recession provide an advantage to savers, while lower interest rates moving out of a recession can benefit homebuyers. Investors may be able to find bargains on assets that have decreased in price during a recession.
Defensive Industries
Historically, the industries considered to be the most defensive and better placed to fare reasonably during recessions are utilities, health care, and consumer staples.
Fewer jobs and higher unemployment abound
One unfortunate truth of recessions is that millions of people often lose their jobs. As spending slows and the economy shrinks, business profits go down, too. To keep their profit margins afloat, they often slow hiring and start firing to trim the budget.
What would a recession mean for Australia? If Australia enters a recession, many people will have a tough time, whether through job loss, home loss, or even just a struggle to pay the bills. Whole markets will tank or lose significant value and many businesses will likely go bankrupt.
Having an emergency fund, strong credit, multiple sources of income, and living within your means are all important tools that can help you get through a rough patch in the economy in one piece financially.
Millionaires and billionaires are almost guaranteed to make a lot of money if they buy stocks/assets during a recession and sell them for a higher price at a later date. Plus, they can rinse and repeat the same strategy whenever there's a market crash.
GOBankingRates consulted quite a few finance experts and asked them this question and they all said basically the same thing: You need three to six months' worth of living expenses in an easily accessible savings account. The exact amount of cash needed depends on one's income tier and cost of living.
Retail, restaurants, hotels and real estate are some of the businesses often hurt during a recession.
In general, a recession lasts anywhere from six to 18 months. For example, the Great Recession that started in December 2007 lasted 18 months. But the recession prompted by the pandemic in 2020 only lasted two months. When a recession is on the horizon, it's impossible to know how long it will last.
Retail, restaurants, and hotels aren't the only businesses often hurt during a recession. Automotive, oil and gas, sports, real estate, and many others see heavy declines during times like these.
The losers' group includes construction, manufacturing of durable goods, wholesale trade; retail trade; and information.
So if you want to insulate yourself during a recession partly with stocks, consider investing in the healthcare, utilities and consumer goods sectors. People are still going to spend money on medical care, household items, electricity and food, regardless of the state of the economy.
A stock fund, either an ETF or a mutual fund, is a great way to invest during a recession. A fund tends to be less volatile than a portfolio of a few stocks, and investors are wagering less on any single stock than they are on the economy's return and a rise in market sentiment.
If you're young and still a while away from retirement, generally the best thing to do with your super before or during a recession is to leave it alone. If you've got your super in a balanced or growth fund (which the majority of Australians do), your super will already be diversified across a range of assets.
Australia could face per-capita (if not actual) recession
Throughout 2023, the panel expects economic growth of just 1.2% in the US and historically weak growth of 4.9% in China, suggesting Australia's biggest customer for minerals will be unable to provide much help as Australia's own economic growth dwindles.
Recessions last 11 months on average. The last recession that Australia faced in the early 90s lasted from September 1990 to September 1991.
“90% of all millionaires become so through owning real estate.” This famous quote from Andrew Carnegie, one of the wealthiest entrepreneurs of all time, is just as relevant today as it was more than a century ago.
During a recession, stock prices typically plummet. The markets can be volatile with share prices experiencing wild swings. Investors react quickly to any hint of news—either good or bad—and the flight to safety can cause some investors to pull their money out of the stock market entirely.
Generally, money kept in a bank account is safe—even during a recession. However, depending on factors such as your balance amount and the type of account, your money might not be completely protected. For instance, Silicon Valley Bank likely had billions of dollars in uninsured deposits at the time of its collapse.
For workers and households, the picture was less rosy. Unemployment was at 5% at the end of 2007, reached a high of 10% in October 2009, and did not recover to 5% until 2015, nearly eight years after the beginning of the recession. Real median household income did not recover to pre-recession levels until 2016.
Companies lay off workers and slow hiring, unemployment rises and wage growth stalls. A mild recession could cost the economy almost 2 million jobs, and a severe recession up to 3 million to 4 million jobs.
In technical terms, Australia avoided a recession because it did not experience two quarters of negative quarter on quarter headline GDP growth. But in terms of GDP per capita, the economic output per person, the economy actually had a recession.