Strong El Niño could make 2024 the first year we pass 1.5°C of warming. A global shift to an El Niño climate pattern later this year could pave the way for the world to breach 1.5°C of warming for the first time in 2024, according to the UK Met Office.
Forecasters from the World Meteorological Organization are reporting increased chances that the global climate pattern known as El Niño will arrive by the end of summer. With it comes increased chances for hotter-than-normal temperatures in 2024.
The chance of at least one year exceeding the current warmest year, 2016, in the next five years is 90% Over 2021-2025, almost all regions, except parts of the southern oceans and the North Atlantic are likely to be warmer than the recent past (defined as the 1981-2010 average)
It says that global average temperatures are estimated to rise 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels sometime around “the first half of the 2030s,” as humans continue to burn coal, oil and natural gas.
Long-range forecast overview
July to September maximum temperatures are likely to very likely warmer than median (60% to greater than 80% chance) for almost all of Australia.
The report stated there was “very high confidence” that temperatures would rise across Australia throughout the century, with the average annual temperature set to be up to 1.3C warmer in 2030 compared with the average experienced between 1986 and 2005.
The Bureau's recently released El Niño 'alert' follows climate model forecasts indicating there is approximately a 70% chance of El Niño forming in 2023.
time is really running out very, very fast”. Emissions must fall by about half by 2030 to meet the internationally agreed target of 1.5C of heating but are still rising, the reports showed – at a time when oil giants are making astronomical amounts of money.
While the effects of human activities on Earth's climate to date are irreversible on the timescale of humans alive today, every little bit of avoided future temperature increases results in less warming that would otherwise persist for essentially forever.
of aggressive climate change policies is that humanity is always about 10 years away from either catastrophic climate change, or some greenhouse gas emission “tipping point” at which such change will become inevitable.
According to the IPCC's 2021 projections of global temperature under different emissions scenarios, peak temperature could be anything from 1.6 ºC in around 2050 (if the globe hits net zero emissions by then), dropping to 1.4 ºC by 2100; to, with emissions still climbing, 4.4 ºC at 2100, with the peak still to come.
Reaching net zero earlier in that range (closer to 2050) avoids a risk of temporarily "overshooting," or exceeding 1.5 degrees C. Reaching net zero later (nearer to 2060) almost guarantees surpassing 1.5 degrees C for some time before global temperature can be reduced back to safer limits through carbon removal.
India will overtake China as the most populated country on Earth. Nigeria will overtake the US as the third most populous country in the world. The fastest-growing demographic will be the elderly: 65+ people will hit one billion by 2030. We will need to figure out ways of how to accommodate 100+ people at work.
La Niña's demise was confirmed overnight by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), whose monthly analysis said: "La Niña has ended and ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring and early summer 2023."
A natural weather event known as El Niño has begun in the Pacific Ocean, likely adding heat to a planet already warming under climate change. US scientists confirmed that El Niño had started. Experts say it will likely make 2024 the world's hottest year.
Earth's temperature has risen by an average of 0.14° Fahrenheit (0.08° Celsius) per decade since 1880, or about 2° F in total. The rate of warming since 1981 is more than twice as fast: 0.32° F (0.18° C) per decade.
With world temperatures set to rise more over the next 50 years than they have in the previous 6,000, scientists agree that far worse is still to come. Today, just one percent of the planet falls within so-called “barely liveable” hot zones: by 2050, the ratio could rise to almost twenty percent.
Is climate change getting better or worse? If greenhouse gas emissions are increasing — which they are, according to NPR — then technically, climate change is getting worse.
Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will lead to further climate changes. Future changes are expected to include a warmer atmosphere, a warmer and more acidic ocean, higher sea levels, and larger changes in precipitation patterns.
Five billion years is how long the planet has left. The biosphere has far less time.
And while the starting point for modern humans is also up for debate, if we say that we've already been around for 200,000 years, we have a fairly comfortable minimum of 800,000 years left – a figure that's again in line with Gott's predictions.
According to climate experts, we have until the year 2030 to stop the continuous global warming of our planet. If we fail to achieve this, they warn of "irreversible effects" of climate change — more supertyphoon, flood, and wildfire.
The Bureau of Meteorology has released its long-range forecast for autumn 2023 and it indicates coming months are likely to be drier and warmer than usual across most of Australia.
Australia could swing from three years of La Niña to hot and dry El Niño in 2023. Australia could swing from three years of above-average rainfall to one of the hottest, driest El Niño periods on record, as models show an increasing likelihood the climate driver may form in the Pacific in 2023.
Maximum temperatures are expected to be higher than average over most of Australia this winter, particularly during the second half of the season if El Niño and a positive IOD become entrenched. Image: Chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature during winter 2023. Source: Bureau of Meteorology.